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Bad Math
Zohar writes: "Thus, even if the Jewish fertility rate were to reach 2.2, with this outflow of 25 percent, the effective Jewish fertility rate would be 1.65 – well below the fertility replacement level. As it now stands, the effective fertility rate is 1.425 percent. Because younger age cohorts are increasingly less affiliated and more intermarried, it stands to reason that the actual fertility rate is dropping even lower." That presumes that all Jews marry Jews. But that doesn`t happen. That is, if intermarried couples have an average of 1.9 kids, and 75% of those kids identify as Jewish, then each 1 intermarried Jew produces an average of 1.425 Jews. That is well above replacement level (if you`re concern is continuity; if your concern is halakha, you`re out of luck).
Elli Fischer, , 09/06/2014 15:19:00